US election 2020 polls: Who is ahead – Trump or Biden?

 

Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.

The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.

As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.

We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.

Biden leading national presidential polls

National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

Who’s ahead in national polls?

DEMOCRAT

BIDEN

52%

REPUBLICAN

TRUMP

43%

Trend line showing average voting intention based on

 

individual polls

Show individual polls

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct3040506003 NovElection day3 days until29 OctTREND43%52%

average voting intention based on individual polls

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33 days until Election day

The BBC poll of polls looks at the  individual national polls from the last 14 days and creates  trend lines using the median value, i.e. the value in the middle of the set of numbers.

Jan 11            48        46

33 days till day

The BBC poll of polls appearance at the  individual national polls from the last fourteen days and creates  trend lines victimization the norm, i.e. the worth within the middle of the set of numbers.

See individual polls

 

By distinction, in 2016 the polls were way less clear and simply one or two of share points separated mister Trump and his then-rival Edmund Hillary Clinton at many points as day neared.

• A extremely easy guide to the North American nation election
• How can early option impact the election?

 

Which states can decide this election?

As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the quantity of votes you win is a smaller amount vital than wherever you win them.

Most states nearly forever vote identical approach, that means that actually there area unit simply a few of states wherever each candidates stand an opportunity of winning. These area unit the places wherever the election are won and lost and area unit called field of honor states.

 

 

In the body system the North American nation uses to elect its president, every state is given variety of votes supported what number members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. a complete of 538 body votes area unit up for grabs, thus a candidate must hit 270 to win.

As the map higher than shows, thusme field of honor states have tons additional body votes on supply than others so candidates usually pay tons longer effort in them.

• What is that the electoral college?
• Predict the president: Play our game

 

Who’s leading within the field of honor states?

At the instant, polls within the field of honor states look smart for Joe Biden however things will modification terribly quickly, particularly once Donald Trump’s concerned.

The polls counsel mister Biden has massive leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – 3 industrial states his Republican rival won by margins of but I Chronicles to clinch finish in 2016.

Latest polling averages in field of honor states

Click a column header to kind the table by that column in ascending or down order

State   BIDEN            TRUMP          Who won in 2016?

Arizona          46.8% 47.4% Trump by three.6%

Florida            48.4% 47.2% Trump by one.2%

Georgia          48.0% 47.2% Trump by five.2%

Iowa    47.2% 46.0% Trump by nine.5%

Michigan       50.0% 43.5% Trump by zero.2%

Minnesota     48.0% 43.3% Clinton by one.5%

Nevada          48.5% 44.5% Clinton by two.4%

New Hampshire       53.4% 42.4% Clinton by zero.4%

North Carolina          48.5% 47.3% Trump by three.7%

Ohio   46.2% 46.2% Trump by eight.2%

Pennsylvania           49.5% 45.9% Trump by zero.7%

Texas 45.7% 48.0% Trump by nine.1%

Virginia          51.7% 40.3% Clinton by five.4%

Wisconsin     50.3% 43.9% Trump by zero.8%

Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: thirty one Oct

 

But it is the field of honor states wherever mister Trump won massive in 2016 that his campaign team are most disquieted regarding. His winning margin in Iowa, Ohio and Lone-Star State was between 8-10% in the past however it’s trying abundant nearer all told 3 at the instant.

That’s one in all the explanations why some political analysts rate his possibilities of re-election as low as things stand. FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis web site, says mister Biden is “favoured” to win the election, whereas The economic expert says he’s “very likely” to beat mister Trump.

• How Trump will still win the North American nation election

 

Who won the presidential debates?

IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY pictures

Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in 2 live TV debates.

The first, on twenty nine September, was a chaotic affair, with mister Trump’s combative approach stamping out any likelihood of a true discussion.

Polls taken straight at that time advised it had been a decent night for mister Biden.

In a CBS News/YouGov poll of individuals in field of honor states United Nations agency watched the talk, forty eighth same mister Biden was the winner whereas forty first went for mister Trump – an identical split to the national polling averages. Nearly seventieth of individuals same the talk created them feel “annoyed”.

A snap CNN poll gave mister Biden a bigger winning margin, with hr of individuals spoken communication he had won, compared to twenty-eight for mister Trump.

In the second discussion, on twenty two Oct, organisers introduced a mute button to assist police the arguments.

But it had been a way additional restrained President Trump on show and there was a way bigger concentrate on the policies of the 2 candidates.

While that perceived to facilitate mister Trump somewhat, the snap polls still advised viewers thought mister Biden’s performance was additional spectacular.

This time, the CNN poll found fifty three of viewers thought the Democrat had done a higher job within the discussion, whereas thirty ninth went with mister Trump. that is still an enormous lead for mister Biden, however way smaller than within the 1st discussion.

A YouGov snap poll was similar, with fifty four spoken communication mister Biden had won compared to thirty fifth for the president.

So whereas mister Trump place in an exceedingly higher performance, it’s unlikely to possess been enough to alter the balance of the race on its own.

• Key takeaways from the Trump-Biden disagreement

 

Has Covid-19 affected Trump’s numbers?

We solely had one or two of days to think about {the 1st|the primary} discussion before President Trump’s bombshell tweet within the early hours of two Oct unconcealed he and also the first girl had tested positive for coronavirus.

While the pandemic has dominated headlines within the North American nation since the beginning of the year, the main target had shifted to the Supreme Court when the death of long-serving Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September.

So mister Trump’s positive coronavirus check place his response to the pandemic, that has claimed the lives of quite two hundred,000 folks within the North American nation, back underneath the spotlight.

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According to knowledge from Associate in Nursing first rudiment News/Ipsos poll, simply thirty fifth of usa citizens approve of however the president has handled the crisis. That figure climbs among Republicans, however solely to seventy six.

On his own health, seventy two of respondents same that mister Trump failed to take the “risk of catching the virus seriously enough,” whereas identical range same he didn’t take “the acceptable precautions once it came to his personal health”.

A similar Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that regarding half respondents believed he might have avoided catching the unwellness altogether if he had experienced bigger social distancing and worn a mask.

• Why area unit Covid-19 infections rising once more in US?

 

Can we have a tendency to trust the polls?

media captionCan election polling predict United Nations agency can become consecutive North American nation president?

It’s easy to dismiss the polls by spoken communication they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump oftentimes will specifically that. however it is not entirely true.

Most national polls did have Edmund Hillary Clinton ahead by a couple of share points, however that does not mean they were wrong, since she won 3 million additional votes than her rival.

Pollsters did have some issues in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters while not a university degree – that means mister Trump’s advantage in some key field of honor states wasn’t noticed till late within the race, if at all. Most polling firms have corrected this currently.

But this year there is even additional uncertainty than traditional thanks to the coronavirus pandemic and also the impact it’s having on each the economy and the way folks can select November, thus all polls ought to be scan with some disbelief, particularly this way out from day.See individual polls

By contrast, in 2016 the polls were far less clear and just a couple of percentage points separated Mr Trump and his then-rival Hillary Clinton at several points as election day neared.

• A really simple guide to the US election
• How will early voting impact the election?

Which states will decide this election?

As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.

Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.

In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.

• What is the electoral college?
• Predict the president: Play our game

Who’s leading in the battleground states?

At the moment, polls in the battleground states look good for Joe Biden but things can change very quickly, especially when Donald Trump’s involved.

The polls suggest Mr Biden has big leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – three industrial states his Republican rival won by margins of less than 1% to clinch victory in 2016.

Latest polling averages in battleground states

Click a column header to sort the table by that column in ascending or descending order
State	BIDEN	TRUMP	Who won in 2016?
Arizona	46.8%	47.4%	Trump by 3.6%
Florida	48.4%	47.2%	Trump by 1.2%
Georgia	48.0%	47.2%	Trump by 5.2%
Iowa	47.2%	46.0%	Trump by 9.5%
Michigan	50.0%	43.5%	Trump by 0.2%
Minnesota	48.0%	43.3%	Clinton by 1.5%
Nevada	48.5%	44.5%	Clinton by 2.4%
New Hampshire	53.4%	42.4%	Clinton by 0.4%
North Carolina	48.5%	47.3%	Trump by 3.7%
Ohio	46.2%	46.2%	Trump by 8.2%
Pennsylvania	49.5%	45.9%	Trump by 0.7%
Texas	45.7%	48.0%	Trump by 9.1%
Virginia	51.7%	40.3%	Clinton by 5.4%
Wisconsin	50.3%	43.9%	Trump by 0.8%

Source: Real Clear Politics, Associated Press. Last updated: 31 October

But it’s the battleground states where Mr Trump won big in 2016 that his campaign team will be most worried about. His winning margin in Iowa, Ohio and Texas was between 8-10% back then but it’s looking much closer in all three at the moment.

That’s one of the reasons why some political analysts rate his chances of re-election as low as things stand. FiveThirtyEight, a political analysis website, says Mr Biden is “favoured” to win the election, while The Economist says he is “very likely” to beat Mr Trump.

• How Trump can still win the US election

Who won the presidential debates?

IMAGE COPYRIGHTGETTY IMAGES

Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.

The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump’s combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.

Polls taken straight after that suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.

In a CBS News/YouGov poll of people in battleground states who watched the debate, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump – a similar split to the national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel “annoyed”.

A snap CNN poll gave Mr Biden a larger winning margin, with 60% of people saying he had won, compared to 28% for Mr Trump.

In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.

But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.

While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, the snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden’s performance was more impressive.

This time, the CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump. That’s still a big lead for Mr Biden, but far smaller than in the first debate.

A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.

So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it’s unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.

• Key takeaways from the Trump-Biden showdown

Has Covid-19 affected Trump’s numbers?

We only had a couple of days to mull over the first debate before President Trump’s bombshell tweet in the early hours of 2 October revealed he and the first lady had tested positive for coronavirus.

While the pandemic has dominated headlines in the US since the start of the year, the focus had shifted to the Supreme Court after the death of long-serving Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in September.

So Mr Trump’s positive coronavirus test put his response to the pandemic, which has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people in the US, back under the spotlight.

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According to data from an ABC News/Ipsos poll, just 35% of Americans approve of how the president has handled the crisis. That figure climbs among Republicans, but only to 76%.

On his own health, 72% of respondents said that Mr Trump did not take the “risk of contracting the virus seriously enough,” while the same number said he failed to take “the appropriate precautions when it came to his personal health”.

A similar Yahoo News/YouGov poll found that about half of respondents believed he could have avoided contracting the disease altogether if he had practised greater social distancing and worn a face mask.

• Why are Covid-19 infections rising again in US?

Can we trust the polls?

media captionCan election polling predict who will become the next US president?

It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.

Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.

Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism, especially this far out from election day.

Check p

US election 2020 polls: World Health Organization is ahead – Trump or Biden?

 

Voters in America can select three November whether or not Donald Trump remains within the White House for an additional four years.

The Republican president is being challenged by party pol Joe Biden, World Health Organization is best called Barack Obama’s vice-president however has been in North American country politics since the Nineteen Seventies.

As polling day approaches, polling firms are going to be attempting to measure the mood of the state by asking voters that candidate they like.

We’ll be keeping track of these polls here and attempting to figure out what {they can|they can|they’ll} and cannot tell North American country concerning World Health Organization will win the election.

 

Biden leading national presidential polls

National polls square measure an honest guide on however fashionable a candidate is across the country as an entire, however they are not essentially an honest thanks to predict the results of the election.

In 2016, for instance, Sir Edmund Hillary Clinton crystal rectifier within the polls and won nearly 3 million additional votes than Donald Trump, however she still lost – that is as a result of the North American country uses associate body system, thus winning the foremost votes does not invariably win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been prior Donald Trump in most national polls since the beginning of the year. He has hovered around five hundredth in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

Who’s ahead in national polls?

 

DEMOCRAT

BIDEN

52%

 

REPUBLICAN

TRUMP

43%

Trend line showing average selection intention supported

 

individual polls

Show individual polls

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct3040506003 NovElection day3 days until29 OctTREND43%52%

average selection intention supported individual polls